Brain-Jockey

Early 2012 Contests May Favor Palin

Written by Bill Schaller on November 17, 2008

 

At the recent Republican Governors Association meeting in Florida, speculation began about the early contestants for president in 2012.  Probably the most familiar name is, of course, Sarah Palin.

A new Rasmussen poll  indicates that 69% of GOP voters believe Palin helped John McCain, while 20% thought she hurt the ticket.  Incredibly, 91% of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of her, 65% very favorable.  While this is partly due to the afterglow of a national campaign, the poll clearly shows Palin has a strong base of support if she entered the 2012 race.  A problem for her is that early frontrunners usually don’t succeed partly due to expectations; a clear example of this is Hillary Clinton. The mood of the electorate will also change over the next three years.

 

Let us take a look at part of the 2008 GOP primary calendar to see how Palin would do in 2012 if she can retain a large part of that favorable support, remembering that this calendar will probably change. I have used David Leip’s website for the schedule and primary results.  

 

First up is the Iowa caucus easily won by Mike Huckabee in 2008.  Any doubt that Palin could win this first contest that features many evangelicals, pro-life supporters and rural voters?  Pawlenty of Minnesota could do well here; the trap for Palin is the expectations game.  Anything less then a clear victory would create doubt about here candidacy. Next is the Wyoming contest handily won by Romney which I believe Palin could also win. 

 

The New Hampshire primary is next and would be the first non-caucus contest and presents the first obstacle to Palin.  New Hampshire voters have the knack of going against the incoming frontrunner and it is where McCain resurrected his campaign on two occasions. Nonetheless, the personal campaigning necessary to do well here is suited for Palin and I can see a strong showing for her if not a victory.  If she reels off wins in the first three states, she probably winnows the field and starts that snowball effect that propels many candidates to ultimate victory.  The Giuliani strategy of skipping all of these early contests and starting the campaign in Florida would be a dangerous precedent to follow for anyone challenging Palin.

 

If Palin wins the first three contests two of the next three would be where the Palin momentum would have to be stopped or at least curbed to a significant degree.  Michigan is a primary state that would have the first large urban and suburban centers.  This could present a challenge to Palin especially if Romney is in the race; he won here in 2008 because his family ties to the state. Another potential obstacle for Palin is the Nevada caucus which was held on the same day as the South Carolina primary.  Romney carried Nevada in 08 due in part to the large Mormon community there. As a caucus state, this would be an interesting battle between the two; if Romney is not in the race, I believe it goes to Palin.  South Carolina is in Palin’s corner unless there is a regional favorite like a Haley Barbour from the South competing against her.  This state was about a 3 point win for McCain over Huckabee.

 

The caucus state of Hawaii is next and frankly I have no idea who wins this.  Maybe Hawaiian Republicans would have an affinity for the other out-of-the-way state in the country and vote for Palin. Then again, maybe not.

 

Next up is the big winner-take-all prize, the Florida primary where McCain was a 5 point winner over Romney.  Palin drew some large crowds this past election and would be competitive in this race with a good chance to win pending the possible campaign of Governor Charlie Crist.

 

Next up is the first of the large primary days with 11 elections.  Huckabee carried Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia and Palin should do well in all of these states; competing with a southerner could cause problems but she should prevail in a least one of these states.  Alaska and Colorado are caucus states which I believe she will handily carry; Alaska for obvious reasons, Colorado because of the influence of the James Dobson type of voters.  Maine, Connecticut, Delaware and Illinois are difficult to determine; Maine as a caucus state could go for the moose-hunting Palin or stick with Romney as in 08.  The rest would probably lean to a regional favorite or go with the frontrunner.  California and Arizona primaries are the first and fourth largest delegate prizes of this day and could present Palin with the opportunity to slam the door on the rest of the field.  The Super Tuesday states would be next but they are beyond my crystal ball’s ability at this time. 

 

 

The key point about this exercise is that out of the first 8 contests Palin would have a very good opportunity to win between 4-6 of them, depending upon where her competitors are from; and even that may not matter too much.  She could very well win the first three, thereby generating a momentum wave that would be hard to stop, while providing the funding she needs to compete in the two national-type primary days.  A win in Florida before the first national primary day would just about seal the deal for her.  The 2008 GOP primary calendar is favorable to her, it remains to be seen if the 2012 one will.